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Change

How does a pot of water boil? How does a viral disease become a pandemic? How do some social media posts go viral? How do empires fall?

How does anything change?

Let’s introduce three concepts: (a) nucleation, (b) non-linearity, and (c) phase change.

Nucleation is the gathering of right conditions for a system to change. You can keep a cup of water in the freezer and it may remain liquid even below 0°C (a metastable system). But take it out and throw in a spec of ice, and the whole cup of water freezes. That spec of ice is the nucleus around which water molecules can gather and crystallize. This is why — in the right conditions — small protests can lead to massive uprisings in societies.

Non-linearity refers to the fact when things start to change, it can happen suddenly, even exponentially. This why the spread of pandemics always surprises decision-makers.

Phase change is a systematic change for the long-term. Systems find new equilibria after a phase change — simply removing the instigating perturbation may not allow a return to the status quo. The world changes around you.

To sum it up: things don’t change until they do, when they do they change slowly at first, then blindingly fast, before settling into a new normal. A system may appear invulnerable, until it starts to collapse — and the rate of change may surprise even the most keen observers.

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